ESPN has concocted a new stat, which Buster Olney defends with a bunch of anecdotal evidence on ESPN.com.
The problem with Productive Out Percentage is pretty easy to spot right away, but let’s state the obvious:
What is a productive out?
A productive out occurs when …
- A baserunner advances with the first out of an inning.
- A pitcher sacrifices with one out.
- A baserunner is driven home with the second out of an inning.
What is the formula for productive out percentage (POP)?
Productive outs divided by the total number of outs. For instance, if three of Player A’s 10 outs are productive, his POP is .300.
POP is pretty easy to dismiss, because here’s what it doesn’t measure: rate of success versus opportunity to have that success. Go back and look at the italics above, and then read on.
Look again at the three conditions that produce a Productive Out [PO]:
- A baserunner advances with the first out of an inning.
- A pitcher sacrifices with one out.
- A baserunner is driven home with the second out of an inning.
All three conditions require a baserunner.
PO’s are as team-dependent as Runs Batted In [RBI] are. RBI’s are a function of two things: runners on base and the batter’s ability to drive them in with a hit. The two factors driving it are, then, OBP(team) and SLG(player), since extra-base hits are more likely to drive in runners than singles. Remember: more bases are better, because more bases get you closer to home plate, no matter how many runners are on base.
If you are a great slugger—say, Barry Bonds—and don’t have a ton of runners on base, you can’t get a lot RBI. Barry Bonds was unquestionably baseball’s best hitter in 2003 [and 2002, and 2001, but I digress], but as you can see, Bonds wasn’t in the top 40 players in terms of RBI in 2003. Why does this happen? It’s entirely due to Bonds’s teammates not being very good at getting on base in front of him.
I am not going to say that there is nothing to the PO concept itself; I do want to lambast the POP concept totally, because it divdes PO’s by total outs, regardless of whether or not there were runners on base at the time. If they reformulated POP to be POmade/POpotential, you might be able to make a case for an ability being present.
Of course, you would have to see that said ability was a “true” ability–that is, one that is demonstrated from year to year. If there is a strong year-to-year statistical correlation between a player’s ability to make Productive Outs in Year N and Year N+1, then ESPN may be on to something.
Instead, they have formulated a “stat” that’s as useless as RBI. All that serves to do is muddy the water.
Thanks a lot, fellas. All that money, and all that ability to have great resources at hand, and what do you do with it? Bupkis.
Alex pointed out that I didn’t discuss home runs or sacrifice flies when discussing RBI. I should have, given that I brought up Bonds. You do get credit for an RBI when you make both, but only one is easy to track in rate stats–the homer.
This reminds me of a study I started back when I was in college, but never finished: Actual Runs Created Percentage. The goal was simple: for each plate appearance a batter had, note how many runners were on base at the time. The maximum number of runs that a batter may cause his team to score in any plate appearance is four–the team has the bases full, and the batter drives in all runners as well as himself. The minimum number of runs that a batter may cause his team to score is, of course, zero—he can make a “non-productive out” that doesn’t cause his team to score, or he can reach base in a way that doesn’t create a run.
I think my idea was to count up Actual Runs Created—that is, the number of runs produced by each batter’s at-bat—and try to find some mean, median, and mode for it. One way to do it would be to create a percentage: divide ACR by the number of plate appearances. [One uses PA here rather than AB's because you do not get an AB for a walk, sacrifice, or hit batsmen, even though all three can produce a run.]
That would be a true rate stat; whether it would matter a damn is worth investigating. Perhaps it has been done; I have never looked to see.